Soybeans Were America’s Biggest Export to China. Now, Sales Are Down to Zero.

The weekly export summaries published by the US Agriculture Department have been telling a concerning story lately: soybean sales to China have vanished. This is a significant development, given that soybeans are America’s largest export to China in terms of value, amounting to $12.6 billion last year. China accounted for 52% of all American soybean exports in the previous year, but as the fall harvest gets underway, there have been no purchases from the country since May.

The reason behind this sudden drop is China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which have made American soybeans uncompetitive in the Chinese market. Throughout the summer, farmers had held out hope that the Trump administration and China would reach a trade agreement that would lift the tariffs on their crops. However, with no relief in sight, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.

According to the Agriculture Department, China purchased 51% fewer American soybeans through July compared to the same period last year. While other countries, such as Egypt, Taiwan, and Bangladesh, are buying soybeans from the US, total soybean exports are down 23% this year. The consequences of this trade dispute are already being felt by American farmers. On Monday, the Trump administration announced its support for Argentina, which is facing economic turmoil. Argentina subsequently suspended its tax on exports of key crops, including soybeans, and Chinese companies promptly bought over a million tons of Argentine soybeans.

The bigger worry, however, is what lies ahead. Soybean prices have been sluggish, trading around $10 a bushel for much of the past year, down from around $13 at the start of 2024. The spring and summer months are typically slow for soybean sales, as China and other countries turn to Brazil, which harvests in February and March. However, if Chinese buyers continue to stay away, American soybean farmers will face a tough situation.

The prospect of continued slow sales of soybeans and an expected bumper corn crop in several states is raising concerns about storage space for grains this fall. There are fears that grain elevators, which buy and store large quantities of crops before selling them, may stop accepting soybeans due to a lack of confidence in their ability to export them.

Politicians from major farming states, such as Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, have highlighted the harm caused to farmers by the trade dispute with China and called for a swift resolution. The Trump administration has taken notice, with Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, stating that the administration cares deeply about China’s decision to stop buying US agricultural products.

On Thursday, President Trump expressed his desire to use some of the money raised from tariffs to support farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said at a separate conference that the government was not yet ready to announce a relief plan for crop farmers. However, she emphasized that the US would develop more international markets for its crops through trade deals, encouraging farmers to diversify their exports and reduce their reliance on China. Rollins acknowledged that Trump’s trade negotiations had been “bumpy and uncertain and unconventional in American history,” but she expressed optimism about the long-term prospects for American farmers.