Mexico Overtakes Canada as the United States’ Leading Trade Partner

U.S. Export Patterns Shift After Three Decades

For the first time in more than thirty years, the United States has shipped a larger volume of goods to Mexico than to its long‑standing neighbor, Canada, according to recent data released by the U.S. government.

The figures highlight a profound consolidation of North American trade, reflecting the growing economic integration spurred by the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) and shifting supply‑chain dynamics across the continent.

Analysts point to several factors behind the change, including:

• Increased manufacturing and assembly operations relocating to Mexico to take advantage of lower labor costs.
• Expanded agricultural exports, particularly fresh produce and livestock, that benefit from Mexico’s proximity and demand.
• Strengthened energy and automotive sectors, where cross‑border components and finished products flow more freely under the USMCA framework.

While Canada remains a crucial partner—especially in high‑technology goods and services—the surge in U.S. shipments to Mexico marks a notable pivot in the region’s trade landscape.

Policymakers and business leaders alike are now watching the trend closely, assessing its implications for future trade negotiations, investment strategies, and the broader economic relationship between the three nations.