Why Russia Is Likely to Reject the New US‑Ukrainian Peace Plan

Background of the proposals

The first draft of the peace initiative was essentially a call for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender. Moscow dismissed it outright, arguing that it ignored the fundamental security concerns of the Russian Federation.

What the revised plan offers

The revised version attempts to soften the original language by adding a series of security guarantees that Kyiv hopes will prevent any resurgence of Russian aggression. These guarantees include:

• Restrictions on NATO’s eastward expansion.
• Commitments to a neutral status for Ukraine.
• Mechanisms for monitoring and verification by international observers.

Why Russia may still say “no”

Despite the new clauses, several sticking points remain:

• Territorial claims – Russia insists on retaining control over regions it has occupied, a demand not reflected in the draft.
• Strategic depth – The plan does not provide Russia with the strategic buffer it seeks along its western border.
• Political legitimacy – Accepting a deal perceived as imposed by the United States could be seen as a domestic weakness.

In short, while the updated proposal shows a willingness to address Kyiv’s security concerns, the core issues that drive Russian policy remain unresolved, making a Russian rejection highly probable.